Recently I’ve been wanting to write again about one Donald J Trump, but each time I held back, for one simple reason: there’s nothing much new to say.
From where I sit in the far south-west of England, America 3,000 to 6,000 miles away, seems deeply, deeply divided into two: those who – still – think the sun shines out of Donny’s arse, and those – like me – who think he is the mother of all cretins, dumb, self-deluded and living in a fantasy world all of is own.
Thus if I were to write here to remind you that ‘water is wet’, you would be entitled to ask ‘OK, so why are you telling us?’
Those two irreconcilable halves of America might not, though, be the full story. Conventionally, it was assumed that at the presidential election last November which resulted in Donny winning the electoral college vote by 86 electoral college votes (312 to 226 for Kamala Harris) was not a simple ‘Democrats v Republicans split.
Many of those who voted for Trump are thought to have been independents, registered or othwerice, who de facto voted against the Democrats. Many are thought to have been Republicans who wanted a conservative president and although they had no time for Trump himself, held their noses and ticked his box as he was the only GOP candidate on offer.
This is all speculation, of course, and as a rule I don’t have a great deal of respect of speculation and regard it is imply ‘guessing’ with with a posher accent and and a spurious air of authority.
What we can say, however that a result Donny, never one to tell the truth, even on a good day, likes to spin into ‘a landslide’ was nothing of the kind. He won the popular vote by a very anaemic 1.5% – that is 2,284967 votes of a total 152,320,193 cast –, not ‘a landslide’ in anyone’s book, I suggest.
And if you, dear reader, are into ‘speculating’, you might care to ‘speculate’ how many of the 77,302,580 who voted for Donny were ‘MAGA’ supporters. Not as many as Donny might have persuaded himself, and nine months in with prices and inflation creeping up I suspect there might now be fewer prepared to accept Donny’s spiel.
But even that is more in the line of ‘water is wet’: it is simply retreading old ground and, frankly, why?
What is worth writing about, though, is how Donny’s second term in the White House is developing in the United States, and it is far from encouraging: the problems are no longer economic, although they are not also becoming more severe, but political.
. . .
As we live day-to-day, week-to-week, we have a rather skewed concept of ‘what is going on’. Developments ‘in contemporary history’ – which is admittedly is a ham-fisted phrase but I can think of no alternative at the moment, let alone a better one – do not seem to happen very quickly.
It might sound daft to say so, but for a week to pass we must live through seven days and for month to pass we cannot rush through the weeks – it will always be four weeks. So looking around, when we can’t spot much activity we assume ‘everything is in hand’. Of course it might not be – it is just taking longer to work its way out.
I enjoy reading history and at present I’m reading about the English civil wars (there were actually two, a long one, then a short one), and when we read history, we do gain a sense of ‘development’ and that ‘development’ does not happen in one weekend.
A good example would be ‘the outbreak of the First World War’ (then called The Great War as at the time no one was planning a ‘Second World War’).
The Dick and Dora version known to most would have ‘war starting’ on June 28, 1914 when Archduke Franz Ferdinand, heir to the Austro-Hungarian throne, and his wife, Sophie, were assassinated in Sarajevo by Gavrilo Princip, a Serbian nationalist.
In fact, the war had been several years, arguably at least 36, in the making from 1888 when Germany’s Kaiser Wilhelm was crowned after the death of his older brother Friederich III and immediately found himself at odds with Otto von Bismarck.
Neither Bismarck nor Wilhelm were ‘nice’ people, but Bismarck was considerably brighter than the Kaiser and certainly more strategic (and, like Trump, thought himself to be rather a smart cookie although he was anything but).
After several bad disagreements in council with Wilhelm, who arguably childishly wanted his own was – after he ‘he was the emperor – Bismarck gave in and resigned, and Germany was in the hands of something of an idiot, much as America is now.
In Wilhelm’s fumbling hands, the elements that led to war in August 1914 one by one fell into place. Like Trump, Wilhelm had an inferiority complex which manifested itself, as in Trump, in brooking no opposition of any kind and demanding total loyalty. There was thus no one to give Wilhelm good advice when it might be needed, just as is the case with Trump (and like Donny, Wilhelm also became a figure of fun in private).
I’m quite prepared to accept that Scott Bessent and one or two others in Donny’s cabinet who have financial and economic experience are fully aware of the stupidity of Donny’s economic policies but, for whatever reason – status, perhaps – prefer to keep schtumm.
The point is that WWI like all other wars did not suddenly ‘break out’, and bearing that in mind, we might care to look at several unusual developments in America since Donny took office which could indicate how the growing disaster that seems due will evolve.
One not so obvious starting point what I suggest might be an uncomortable period in both American and global history might be a decision by the supreme court of the United States (SCOTUS) on July 1, 2024, which was by any measure extraordinary. Until then, a US president could not be sued in a civil court for any acts he (or she, but ‘a she’ is still to come) had undertaken in the course of his (or her) presidential duties. The new ruling was that the same applied to any criminal acts a president might similar commit.
I am not a lawyer and will not claim that my thinking is always straight or the best. But SCOTUS’s ruling strikes me as dangerous. But the impossibly vague nature of what a president might claim was a ‘presidential act’ promises huge confusion.
SCOTUS’s handling of the issue came after Donny summoned his followers to meet outside Congress on January 6, 2024, to protest.
Although he never openly said so – he has the kind of peasant cunning one finds in many backstreet thugs which combined with an essential stupidity makes them very dangerous and was wise enough to be clear – he claimed he had lost the election the previous November because of fraud and the result should not be certified.
His mob eventually and literally invaded Congress, and he was subsequently indicted for insurrection. But eventually SCOTUS, which had a Republican majority, let Donny off the hook. To quote from the preface to SCOTUS’s ruling:
That pretty much sums up the dangerous state America now finds itself in but that was over a year ago – there have been other more sinister developments. What is remarkable is that this bizarre ruling form SCOTUS seemed almost to pass with comment in a nation that had hitherto prized itself and posed as the world’s beacon of freedom and democracy.
I shall leave to one side Donny’s ridiculous programme of ‘reciprocal tariffs’ he unveiled on April 3 in the White House Rose Garden (now apparently a parking lot. Oh well, this is Donald Trump after all).
Donny’s quite blatant authoritarian tendencies became very clear when sent out his ICE goons to round-up ‘illegal migrants’, all based on a ridiculous claim that ‘the country was being invaded’. ICE made one terrible mistake and detained and deported to El Salvador, but Donny then doubled down and tied himself in knots rather than give way.
It just takes hotheads on both side for the whole thing to get way out of control. ‘Getting out of control’ is how most wars start (except Vlad Putin’s ‘limited military action’ – that was planned, though it was planned to be done and dusted in a matter of weeks. Now more than three years on and almost a million dead . . .)
With luck, America will get through this. But will it get that luck?
After several bad disagreements in council with Wilhelm, who arguably childishly wanted his own was – after he ‘he was the emperor – Bismarck gave in and resigned, and Germany was in the hands of something of an idiot, much as America is now.
In Wilhelm’s fumbling hands, the elements that led to war in August 1914 one by one fell into place. Like Trump, Wilhelm had an inferiority complex which manifested itself, as in Trump, in brooking no opposition of any kind and demanding total loyalty. There was thus no one to give Wilhelm good advice when it might be needed, just as is the case with Trump (and like Donny, Wilhelm also became a figure of fun in private).
I’m quite prepared to accept that Scott Bessent and one or two others in Donny’s cabinet who have financial and economic experience are fully aware of the stupidity of Donny’s economic policies but, for whatever reason – status, perhaps – prefer to keep schtumm.
The point is that WWI like all other wars did not suddenly ‘break out’, and bearing that in mind, we might care to look at several unusual developments in America since Donny took office which could indicate how the growing disaster that seems due will evolve.
. . .
One not so obvious starting point what I suggest might be an uncomortable period in both American and global history might be a decision by the supreme court of the United States (SCOTUS) on July 1, 2024, which was by any measure extraordinary. Until then, a US president could not be sued in a civil court for any acts he (or she, but ‘a she’ is still to come) had undertaken in the course of his (or her) presidential duties. The new ruling was that the same applied to any criminal acts a president might similar commit.
I am not a lawyer and will not claim that my thinking is always straight or the best. But SCOTUS’s ruling strikes me as dangerous. But the impossibly vague nature of what a president might claim was a ‘presidential act’ promises huge confusion.
SCOTUS’s handling of the issue came after Donny summoned his followers to meet outside Congress on January 6, 2024, to protest.
Although he never openly said so – he has the kind of peasant cunning one finds in many backstreet thugs which combined with an essential stupidity makes them very dangerous and was wise enough to be clear – he claimed he had lost the election the previous November because of fraud and the result should not be certified.
His mob eventually and literally invaded Congress, and he was subsequently indicted for insurrection. But eventually SCOTUS, which had a Republican majority, let Donny off the hook. To quote from the preface to SCOTUS’s ruling:
A federal grand jury indicted former President Donald J. Trump on four counts for conduct that occurred during his Presidency following the November 2020 election. The indictment alleged that after losing that election, Trump conspired to overturn it by spreading knowingly false claims of election fraud to obstruct the collecting, counting, and certifying of the election results. Trump moved to dismiss the indictment based on Presidential immunity, arguing that a President has absolute immunity from criminal prosecution for actions performed within the outer perimeter of his official responsibilities, and that the indictment’s allegations fell within the core of his official duties. The District Court denied Trump’s motion to dismiss, holding that former Presidents do not possess federal criminal immunity for any acts. The D. C. Circuit affirmed. Both the District Court and the D. C. Circuit declined to decide whether the indicted conduct involved official acts.After hearing oral arguments from both sides, it made its ruling on presidential immunity.
Quite how ridiculous that ruling is – and were there any doubt about my opinion of Donny, that last sentence should lay to rest any doubts – might be gauged from the following: in response to a hypothetical question from
one of the justices, John Sauer, Trump’s attorney argued that if it were deemed to be a ‘presidential act’ within his duties, a president who a political opponent murdered would be immune from prosecution.
That pretty much sums up the dangerous state America now finds itself in but that was over a year ago – there have been other more sinister developments. What is remarkable is that this bizarre ruling form SCOTUS seemed almost to pass with comment in a nation that had hitherto prized itself and posed as the world’s beacon of freedom and democracy.
I shall leave to one side Donny’s ridiculous programme of ‘reciprocal tariffs’ he unveiled on April 3 in the White House Rose Garden (now apparently a parking lot. Oh well, this is Donald Trump after all).
Donny’s quite blatant authoritarian tendencies became very clear when sent out his ICE goons to round-up ‘illegal migrants’, all based on a ridiculous claim that ‘the country was being invaded’. ICE made one terrible mistake and detained and deported to El Salvador, but Donny then doubled down and tied himself in knots rather than give way.
There are further details, at each point underlining how stupid Donny’s administration is, but I shan’t go into them here except to add that a charge of ‘contempt of court’ is just one of the complications Donny’s gang of morons have landed themselves with.
It gets worse: claiming another ‘national emergencies’ because allegedly crime it out of control, Donny had state national guards sent on to the streets which looked very much like the military taking over policing duties, certainly forbidden under the constitution.
The suspicion is that Donny wants to set precedents. And notably he only claimed ‘crime was out of control’ in blue states, although the stats show that crime is a bigger problem in red states. But Donny is not one to allow details to deter him – and, anyway, the whole point of the exercise was to have a semi-plausible excuse for sending in the national guard: the stats are irrelevant.
Most recently there was one of the oddest developments: Donny had Pete Hegseth, the former Secretary of Defense, now Secretary of War, summon all American senior officers from around the world for a meeting in Virginia. They were not told why or what the purpose of the meeting was.
Two suggested explanations, both fundamentally nuts but sadly not at all implausible, are that Donny wanted to ’test loyalty’ of the armed forces leaders who were expressly told that it they did not agree with the policies and policy objectives of the Trump administration, they must resign.
This, of course, put them in a terrible situation: if on principle they did resign, they are out of the game and would have not clout at all. If they do not resign, they might well feel themselves obliged to undertake actions with which they do not agree.
Furthermore, this whole business is horribly reminiscent of Hitler’s antics when he manoeuvred himself into controlling the German army as well as setting up a kind of alternative army in the SS.
Despite all the bullshit coming out of the administration, America is not thriving economically and it is very, very likely that the Republicans will be wiped out of the House of Representative and lose senators in the mid-term elections. And Donny knows this.
So there are quite serious suggestions that he will somehow ensure there are no mid-terms, perhaps by claiming there is a national emergency and declaring martial law.
Does that sound mad? Of course it does, it sounds absolutely fucking bonkers! But equally as bonkers would have been to predict that Donny would resist the peaceful transfer of power in January 2024 and do his best to stope the election being certified. But that is exaclty what he did.
Most distressing of all is the apparent supine attitude of the opposition Democrats who apart from notable exception seem to be doing nothing.
The real danger is – and this is where many will decide I have lost the plot – another American civil war. Did he really suggest that? Yes, he fucking did.
Unlike in Europe, America is awash with guns and there are some very odd attitudes to gun deaths: this is what St Charlie Kirk, MAGA’s very own Horst Wessel told a Turning Point rally in 2023
It gets worse: claiming another ‘national emergencies’ because allegedly crime it out of control, Donny had state national guards sent on to the streets which looked very much like the military taking over policing duties, certainly forbidden under the constitution.
The suspicion is that Donny wants to set precedents. And notably he only claimed ‘crime was out of control’ in blue states, although the stats show that crime is a bigger problem in red states. But Donny is not one to allow details to deter him – and, anyway, the whole point of the exercise was to have a semi-plausible excuse for sending in the national guard: the stats are irrelevant.
Most recently there was one of the oddest developments: Donny had Pete Hegseth, the former Secretary of Defense, now Secretary of War, summon all American senior officers from around the world for a meeting in Virginia. They were not told why or what the purpose of the meeting was.
Two suggested explanations, both fundamentally nuts but sadly not at all implausible, are that Donny wanted to ’test loyalty’ of the armed forces leaders who were expressly told that it they did not agree with the policies and policy objectives of the Trump administration, they must resign.
This, of course, put them in a terrible situation: if on principle they did resign, they are out of the game and would have not clout at all. If they do not resign, they might well feel themselves obliged to undertake actions with which they do not agree.
Furthermore, this whole business is horribly reminiscent of Hitler’s antics when he manoeuvred himself into controlling the German army as well as setting up a kind of alternative army in the SS.
. . .
Despite all the bullshit coming out of the administration, America is not thriving economically and it is very, very likely that the Republicans will be wiped out of the House of Representative and lose senators in the mid-term elections. And Donny knows this.
So there are quite serious suggestions that he will somehow ensure there are no mid-terms, perhaps by claiming there is a national emergency and declaring martial law.
Does that sound mad? Of course it does, it sounds absolutely fucking bonkers! But equally as bonkers would have been to predict that Donny would resist the peaceful transfer of power in January 2024 and do his best to stope the election being certified. But that is exaclty what he did.
Most distressing of all is the apparent supine attitude of the opposition Democrats who apart from notable exception seem to be doing nothing.
The real danger is – and this is where many will decide I have lost the plot – another American civil war. Did he really suggest that? Yes, he fucking did.
Unlike in Europe, America is awash with guns and there are some very odd attitudes to gun deaths: this is what St Charlie Kirk, MAGA’s very own Horst Wessel told a Turning Point rally in 2023
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The 21 victims murdered at the Robb Elementary School shooting in Uvalde, Texas, in May 2022, whose deaths, however, were ‘worth it’ according to Charlies Kirk, MAGA’s very own Horst Wessel. Ironically, though Yanks rarely do irony unless they are Jewish and have a sense of humour, Kirk was also a gun death victim. I wonder whether his wife and the mother of his two children agree that his death was ‘worth it’? Doubt it |
It just takes hotheads on both side for the whole thing to get way out of control. ‘Getting out of control’ is how most wars start (except Vlad Putin’s ‘limited military action’ – that was planned, though it was planned to be done and dusted in a matter of weeks. Now more than three years on and almost a million dead . . .)
With luck, America will get through this. But will it get that luck?
The final irony is that none of this should come as the surprise it seems to be to many folk. Trump has always been very clear that he does not believe in democracy, wants to rule like a king, doesn’t give a shit about anyone except himself and loves no one but himself.
He is also a sandwich short of a picnic, but that is just the icing on his cake.