Meet me, the ‘hate criminal’ and ‘transphobic’ to boot. That I am not, never have and never shall be and loathe bigots is neither here nor there.

As is the odd way of these things, I have — more or less — been accused of a ‘hate crime’. The situation is similar to when I posted a comment to a Guardian story last summer and for a month my comments were ‘pre-moderated’.

My comment then was on a story by one of its football writers who began life as Paolo Bandini, but had transitioned and is now Nicky Bandini, a trans-woman. And let me say upfront to ensure there is no misunderstanding (as, almost invariably, there can be): I have no problem, objection, dislike or anything of that kind with trans folk. None whatsoever, and I never have.

Furthermore, I believe, and would advocate, that everyone and anyone who is afflicted by ‘gender dysphoria’ — which put simply (and, to tread carefully, I should add in my understanding) is when a man or a woman, registered as male or female at birth, feels and is convinced they are, in fact, a member of the opposite gender — should get all the assistance, understanding and compassion possible, because they do not seem happy in the sex assigned them at birth.

This has nothing to do with hermaphroditism or those rare occasions when a newborn child does not present with two X chromosomes (which genetically marks them as female) or an X and a Y chromosome, but presents some variation thereof. It is also not related to sexuality as such, although it might come to have a bearing on sexuality.

Gender dysphoria (and I shall shall stress again as far as I know) occurs in folk who at birth had conclusively presented with two XX chromosomes and were registered, brought up and regarded as ‘female’; or who presented with an X and a Y chromosome and were registered male etc. The problem for them is that they become convinced they are simply not either female or male and identify with the opposite gender. And I get that too, and I repeat I accept that wholly and without reservation.

I came unstuck in my Guardian comment and, more recently, in a comment I posted on a Digital Spy forum, when I said that with the best will in the world I found it difficult to accept that a trans-woman is a woman as much as my mother and sister are women. As far as I can see the issue rests on the distinction — a crucial distinction, I suggest — between ‘gender’ and ‘sex’.

My point is that as far as ‘gender’ is concerned, folk can be any gender they choose to be and, I am obliged to concede, a trans-woman is a woman as much as a woman born a woman is a women as far as ‘gender’ is concerned. My problem comes when I am obliged — as I think I am — to accept that a trans-woman is equally as much a woman as far as her sex is concerned (i.e. not her ‘gender’) as much as are my mother and my sister.

Given that, as far as sex is defined, it requires two X chromosome to be a woman, how can, on that definition, a trans-woman who still presents with an X and a Y chromosome ‘be’ a woman as much as the woman with two XX

chromosomes (and, of course, that applies to trans-men who still present with two X chromosomes).

NB I have avoided using the term (which might seem useful here, but on reflection would not be) ‘sexual identity’, as it is more often used in a different context and if used here might muddy the water.

To repeat: distinguishing between ‘gender’ and ‘sex’ is crucial.

I can see where the objection comes from when I proclaim (as I did in my Guardian comment and again more recently on the Digital Spy forum) that I find it impossible to understand how in terms of their ‘sex’ — as opposed to their ‘gender’ — a man can become a woman. Does she menstruate? Does she have a womb and and can she conceive a child?

Yet, already, simply by asking those questions I am, in the eyes of some, guilty of transphobia and, by implication, a hate crime. My one hope is that others might understand what I am trying to say — because they agree that the distinction we must make between ‘gender’ and ‘sex’ and will not find me guilty of transphobia or anywhere close.

. . .

The particular thread to which I added my comment was concerned with a tweet the Harry Potter author J K Rowling had made. I haven’t seen her original tweet, but after the row blew up, she posted a response on her blog which you can read here.

This is what I said on the Digital Spy forum which made Digital Spy email to say

‘This post has been removed for defending transphobia and making comments that are considered transphobic rhetoric. This isn't productive to discussion. Due to this and our zero tolerance policy on comments of this nature your account has been terminated.’

Here is my post in full (which was contained in the email DS sent me). It does to some extent duplicate what I have written above. I have not changed it or corrected my literals, but I have added paragraphs to make it easier to read. And because I simply copied and pasted it from the email I have retained the odd typographical features:

The whole ‘transphobia’ issue is a minefield and one in which I have already been injured. What I find unacceptable is the insistence by some that if you don't subscribe to the idea that someone who ‘identifies’ as a man having been born a woman, or who identifies as a woman having been born a man, you are ‘phobic’.
But finding yourself, as I do, unable to accept that a human with two X chromosomes is ‘a man’ simply because she/he identifies as ‘a man’ and has perhaps had surgery and hormone treatment (and an XY chromosomes but now identifies as ‘a woman’ cast as someone who ‘hates’ trans people is beyond bizarre.
I’m well aware of the philosophical debates about ‘what is gender’ etc but I cannot get past simple facts: irrespective of how someone ‘identifies', they will have (the small number of exceptions we know off such as having three chromosomes) either XX or XY. How does ‘my identification’ change that?
Yes, if someone is born and raised in one sex/as one gender (it is still to vague which term to use as both are used to mean both the same and different things) but all their life feels they are they other, something is certainly going on. And they and they concerns should be taken seriously and their concerns should be respected.
But from there to move swiftly to decrying those of use who cannot equate a ‘trans woman’ as ‘a woman (and vice versa) as ‘phobic’ and ‘guilty of a hate crime’ really is very, very dangerous. It's the kind of behaviour exhibited by both Stalinists and Nazis, but in some circles it is becoming the norm. Rowling has my sympathy for the firestorm she finds herself in.
BTW A year ago I said much the same thing in a Guardian comment and immediately my comment was deleted and for several weeks all comments I made were ‘pre-moderated'. What made it all the more farcical is that officially the Guardian does not believe ‘in censorship’. It’s the kind of double-think Orwell satirised in Animal Farm when some animals were ‘more equal than others’.We must be very careful were we are allowing ourselves to be led.

. . .

When I first got the email from DS informing me they were terminating my account, I was just astonished. I could not believe it. By the following day I had become quite angry: I wasn’t and am not transphobic; I loathe those (usually on the far-right) who are (and who tend to be racist and homophobic, too) and do not want to be lumped into the same group as them; and the implication is that I am guilty of a ‘hate crime’, although that phrase has not been used.

Last week, I wrote to the legal department of Hearst Magazines (which owns Digital Spy) telling them just that. I added that they must — and I used the phrase — put up or shut up, that if Digital Spy (and thus Hearst’s lawyers) did and do think I am transphobic and thus guilty of a ‘hate crime’ they must report me to the police.

If, on the other hand and on reflection (and I did spell this out as I suspect this is the crux of the matter) they feel that an overzealous moderator (and possibly her/his supervisor if it was referred up) was responsible for judging me transphobic, they must rescind the judgment and re-instate my account.

For good measure I sent a copy of my letter and a printout of the comments to the chief constable of Devon & Cornwall police (who I imagine would be responsible for charging me with the ‘hate crime’ if it came to that as I live in Cornwall), Liz Truss, the government minister responsible for (among other things) Women and Equalities, and, for good measure, Peter Hitchens of the Mail on Sunday, who takes an interest in these matters.

NB Although I don’t share most of his political views which are to the right of mine on a good day, I was acquainted him and often chatted to him when I was working on the Daily Mail and I can tell those who might think so that he is certainly not the right-wing ogre of popular repute (which usually gets these kind of things wrong).

I have so far only heard from the chief constable who wrote to tell me he had passed on my letter to the most senior officer in Cornwall. I haven’t heard from the Hearst lawyers and, I don’t expect to: they will simply decide to allow the whole issue to dissipate: do they care whether or not I am transphobic? Er, probably not. I suspect they would also be reluctant to reinstate my account because it would be a tacit admission that ‘they were wrong’ and big organisations are, for many reasons, invariably reluctant to admit they were wrong unless the can somehow spin it to their advantage (‘Look, how openhearted and honest we are; we made a mistake and are only too pleased to admit it’ — except, of course, when they don’t which is usually). Best and certainly easiest to allow the matter to die a death.

I, however, will not let it dwindle away. I really, really, really don’t want to be lumped in with those right-wing thugs that do, metaphorically speaking, go around beating up gays and trans people. In practice, of course, there’s really not a lot more I can do apart from write again demanding a response. And my second letter can, and probably still will be, as ignored as the first was.

Wish me luck.

‘Teflon Don will go on and on: How could Trump survive November’s election when he’s engulfed in riots, Covid meltdown and high unemployment?’ Well, here’s what one man thinks, and it’s worrying

While in the US all the peaceful protest and demonstrations of the murder of George Floyd, the riots and looting by some, heavy-handed containment by some law forces have carried Trump has made repeated outrageous comments. His crass announcement, in view of a rise in the number of employed — note though, this is among white people: black and minority unemployment has risen — that ‘Hopefully George is looking down right now and saying this is a great thing that's happening for our country’ makes your jaw drop: did he really say that? Well, yes did.

You might be prepared — at a pinch — to give him the benefit of doubt that he didn’t, as he claimed, know the provenance of the phrase by a Miami, Florida, police chief that ‘when the looting starts, the shooting starts’. Even so given the circumstances that statement in itself is pretty provocative. But his posing for a photo opportunity with a bible outside St John’s Church, near the White House is an indication of the cynicism of the man.

You might again be prepared to give him the benefit of doubt that he had no idea police would use tear gas to disperse a peaceful demonstration in Lafayette Park to clear the way for him to get to the church and did not sanction it. Perhaps or perhaps not. His statements, his attitude and his encouragement of civil disobedience against state governors will certainly have persuaded whoever did instigate that police action that they would have the president’s full backing and approval.

All this comes on the back of the Trump administration’s terrible handling of the coronavirus crisis in the US and Trump’s various comments from the outset would be worth a laugh if it weren’t all so serious. The upshot is that Trump’s poll ratings have fallen, but just slightly. Perhaps, as I once thought, you believe that Donald Trump will certainly not be re-elected for a second term as US president. Well if that is the case, read the following. It is by David Cay Johnston, editor-in-chief of DCReport.org. I thought it better to allow you to read it in full rather than try to summarise it. It makes for very worrying reading:

Teflon Don will go on and on: How could Trump survive November’s election when he’s engulfed in riots, Covid meltdown and high unemployment? One Pulitzer-winning reporter says he’s set to win

By DAVID CAY JOHNSTON, editor-in-chief of DCReport.org

After the anarchic and deeply troubling scenes of recent days, many will surely conclude that, in overwhelming numbers, the American people will kick Donald Trump out of the White House in November’s election. What else could we do? Our country is in flames, with peaceful protesters being tear-gassed and struck with police batons amid looting and lawlessness.

Twelve major cities have declared curfews, 17,000 troops have been activated, governors in at least 24 states called in the National Guard and more than 11,000 people have been arrested since the sickening footage first emerged of a white police officer pinning an unarmed black man, George Floyd, to the ground by kneeling on his neck, resulting in his death.

And if all that weren’t bad enough, we have the world’s worst tally of coronavirus deaths, at well over 100,000 — approaching double the number of Americans killed in the Vietnam War.

Millions of people have lost their jobs already, and millions more are expected to join them in a recession — even a depression — following the pandemic. Little wonder that many of Trump’s most ardent supporters are subdued on the subject of ‘four more years’. But I have studied Trump for 32 years, having first met him in 1988 when I investigated his casino operations in Atlantic City and uncovered his friendships with the Mafia.

I know the man, his motivations and his modus operandi well. Let me tell you that it would be a huge mistake to assume he has lost the 2020 election. In fact, there are many reasons to believe that what is happening now will deliver him that second term.

Critical as I have long been of him, I’ve always admired his ability to convince millions of people that he is a modern Midas, a ‘very stable genius’, to use his own phrase — and the only person who can save America. That these claims are nonsense doesn’t matter as long as enough people believe them. Despite his many flaws, Trump is remarkably resilient.

Trump will claim his tough law-and-order
policies crushed the violence

To retain the White House, he faces three challenges. First, he must persuade Americans that China is responsible for the coronavirus deaths, and feckless state governors and local mayors — rather than his own chaotic administration — mishandled the pandemic. If fatalities, as expected, are falling after the summer, he will benefit. Should a reliable treatment have emerged by then, this will help further.

Second, the social unrest needs to recede — as it will in the weeks to come. Trump will claim it was his tough law-and-order policies that crushed the violence that erupted after Mr Floyd’s death and simultaneously reassure voters he is concerned about abusive policing.

His third challenge is the economy. This is the easiest one for him. Even with more than a quarter of American workers on jobless benefits — and after a slightly uptick in employment numbers yesterday — Trump can argue the fastest way to revive the economy is to cut taxes further and jettison yet more business regulations. Most of the big

corporations don’t want the Democrats back in power, with the prospect of higher taxes and more red tape. They can help him now by announcing expansion plans and job-hire schemes, promising even more if he wins in November.

Meeting these challenges is achievable. And it is of a pattern with a man whose life has been characterised by turning setbacks that would destroy the careers and reputations of anyone else into triumphs.

Trump never admits error. His late mentor, the notorious political fixer and mafia consigliere Roy Cohn (who was disbarred as a lawyer for trying to defraud his own client), taught him to attack law enforcement and make them the bad guys. Whenever a judge rules against him, Trump calls the jurist a bigot, an idiot, corrupt or a ‘hater’.

The President understands that millions of white Americans never embraced the civil rights movement. Sadly, too many still wish they could put minorities ‘back in their place’. They don’t want to sit next to an Asian on a plane, work alongside a Latino, and God forbid having to report to a black female boss!

Trump delights these fans by denouncing ‘political correctness’. He’s particularly brilliant in attacking this taboo, building support among those who demand the freedom to use racial, religious and gender slurs. He also champions the peculiar American right that prevails in some states to walk around with military assault rifles slung over a shoulder and handguns holstered on the hip: a right that has been extensively displayed during recent protests against lockdowns and social distancing.

In this year’s election, Democrats expect heavily armed Trump supporters to mass near polling places where those who oppose the President will vote. Their message will be clear — and some voters will be too intimidated to cast ballots.

Rejecting Washington bureaucratese
he endlessly repeats crude slogans

Trump is also pushing hard to block postal voting in certain states, a process he uses personally but insists is rife with fraud. His campaign is currently lobbying for postal voting in states where the process might benefit him, but against it in states he risks losing. All this makes him a formidable candidate in 2020.

Then there is his core appeal.

His feral nature — his speech and bearing a world away from most politicians and statesmen — chimes with people who’d never dream of reading manifestos or the detailed plans of presidential candidates. Rejecting the bureaucratese of Washington DC’s politicos, he endlessly repeats crude slogans. Where his 2016 opponent Hillary

Clinton — and his predecessor as President, Barack Obama — used sophisticated language, Trump gives his supporters chants: ‘Lock Her Up!’ ‘Build the Wall!’ and, of course: ‘Make America Great Again.’

When he cries, ‘I love the poorly educated,’ the same people applaud him, despite the slur.

He has long positioned himself as the champion of the Forgotten Man and that will not change in November. Denied his beloved rallies in sports stadiums because of coronavirus, he is now using Twitter and his combative press conferences to keep feeding lines to his ‘base’.

His appalling brilliance lies in the fact that no other candidate has so tapped into the disappointment, heartbreak and fury many poorer Americans feel from being endlessly squeezed, having watched their manufacturing jobs go to China and their pay-packets shrink as the billionaire class — of which he noisily claims to be a member — has only grown richer.

The ordinary voters do not scrutinise economic data. Yet they hear Trump brag incessantly that he has built the world’s greatest economy. Jobs, he insists, were becoming more plentiful on his watch until the virus struck, and wages had started rising in real terms.

He even made the preposterous and unsubstantiated claim that his over-promoted daughter Ivanka had created ‘14 million jobs — and going up’. That would be nearly a tenth of all jobs in America.

So even though many of his supporters might admit that, perhaps, they are no better off than they were four years ago, they can nonetheless believe that having a Democrat in the White House would be worse.

Demographics also favour him: at the last election, Hillary Clinton won among voters aged between 18 and 39, and Trump won among those over 40. Those older Americans account for more than 70 per cent of the voting-age population and are more likely to cast ballots than younger people.

Thanks in large part to Trump, America is now more polarised, especially by generation, than at any time its recent history. On social media here, many complain that family gatherings have become impossible because of irreconcilable differences of opinion about the President.

Once Trump wins a voter, he seems to
have an unbreakable hold on them

Trump also benefits from a psychological phenomenon that has received scientific scrutiny in recent years. People are stubborn in their beliefs. Studies show most of us double down on them, even after being shown clear evidence that the facts do not support our convictions. Once Trump wins a voter, he seems to have an unbreakable hold on them: why else would his approval ratings have barely budged throughout his term?

All his life, Trump has always enjoyed stunning success in damage avoidance, and not only when he cheats on his wives. He dodged any fallout in the 1980s when both his personal helicopter pilot and the provider of his fleet of casino aircraft, were caught running an international drug-trafficking ring. Trump continued to employ the pilot after he had been indicted, later urging the judge to impose a lenient sentence.

Three decades ago, his lawyers negotiated an extraordinary private settlement in which his empire shed a total $3 billion debt — over $800 million of which he had personally guaranteed — without being forced, as he would

normally be expected to, to declare personal bankruptcy. That was followed by four corporate bankruptcies when he was CEO of a casino company — even as it paid him at least $83 million.

In 2005, I received by post the only Trump federal tax return the public has ever seen. I believe he sent it to me — an investigative journalist specialising in economics and tax issues — only because it showed a huge income for that year of $153 million.

Following my reports on the subject, the New York Times launched its own investigation into Trump’s financial affairs, uncovering mountains of business records and finding, among other things, that ‘President Trump participated in dubious tax schemes in the 1990s’. For the rest of us, any one of these lemons would have barred a future political career. Sitting today in the Oval Office, it’s clear Trump concocted the ultimate lemonade.

He also benefits from deep fractures in the Democratic Party, which is torn between progressives who want European-style benefits such as universal health care, and corporate-friendly Democrats such as Joe Biden, the presumptive nominee, who is tarnished with sleaze allegations. Trump is the fourth president out of 45 who lost the popular vote but won the White House. Presidents are voted in not by the citizens, but by ‘electors’ in each state, in a process called the Electoral College

Finally, in Trump’s favour, there is the peculiar way American presidents are elected. Trump is the fourth president out of 45 who lost the popular vote — the total number of votes cast nationally — but won the White House anyway. Presidents are voted in not by the citizens of the country as a whole, but by ‘electors’ in each state, through a process called the Electoral College. America’s ‘founding fathers’ designed the system in this way because they feared that the rabble might one day choose a madman or a zealot: it was a backstop against mob rule.

Trump can win office even when most
Americans do not want him there

The Electoral College favours under-populated rural states — which tend to vote Republican — against more populous urban ones, whose allegiances are more likely Democrat. Put simply, your vote goes further in Wyoming (population 572,000) than in California (40 million). Unfortunately, the arrangement does not work perfectly, which is why a man like Trump, who has no respect for our Constitution or for democracy, can win office even when most Americans do not want him there.

Come November, I expect Trump to lose the popular vote by up to 16 million ballots. Despite this, he will secure a second term if he wins just 270 of the 538 Electoral College votes. (In 2016, he won 304.) Suddenly, his approval rating of 43 per cent doesn’t seem quite so fatal.

The Great Gatsby author F. Scott Fitzgerald famously wrote that ‘there are no second acts in American lives’. Trump’s biography gives the lie to that. That he succeeds when he should fail is testament to his extraordinary skills as a con artist, easily the most successful the world has ever known.

New York gangster John Gotti, boss of the Gambino crime family with whom Trump’s father did business, became known as ‘the Teflon Don’ because nothing would stick to him: he was acquitted at three major criminal trials having participated, it later emerged, in witness intimidation and jury tampering.

Though he is not a criminal like Gotti, Donald Trump’s unsinkable reputation shows he is a Teflon Don for our own era. Deceptions, lies and near-treasonous acts of disloyalty such as saying he trusts Vladimir Putin over American intelligence agencies merely slide off him.

The lesson for November’s election is clear. Don’t — for a single moment — write him off.

Woe is us, woe, woe (and for once I’m a little more serious)

I’m not a born cassandra and tend to look on the bright side of things. I’m a ‘the glass is half-full’ guy. But for some years past, and again quite keenly a few months ago, I’ve felt that the good times were drawing to a close in a far more long-term way, that the ‘good life’ many — though certainly not most —have been living could not go on for ever.

Be honest: we might all have our petty troubles, our health concerns, trouble with children, but for many of us our lives and existences are demonstrably more comfortable than they were for our parents, our grandparents and their parents. But I feel and suspect that circumstances are slowly to change and we will have little control over it.

To be fair to myself, this was not and is not some ageing gent’s pessimism, the unobtrusive side-effects of still tiny but growing cataracts, dulling the colours of the world and making it look drabber and greyer; or the product of the mind and spirit of a body subjected to growing hypertension after a lifetime of smoking and boozing, feeling ever-so-slightly off-colour all the time with the impact that has on feelings and outlook. It is just what I believe history tells us.

In 2020, the vast majority of the nine billion-odd who live on Earth do not have to fear a early death or that half of our offspring will not survive until adulthood. In the Middle Ages the average life span was an astonishingly low 32 years (a figure which takes into account, of course, the huge infant mortality — it doesn’t mean that most people were dead by 32, though they were tens and hundreds of millennia ago). In 2020 it is over double that, at 73 years (again taking into account that the vast majority of our children reach adulthood).

In many parts of the world justice is no longer arbitrary and does not depend on the whims and moods of a ruler’s place men (though I’m sure everyone reading this will be able to cite exceptions). Broadly — and there are certainly exceptions to this — the rule of law does not favour ‘the authorities’ and ‘the rulers’, and justice of some kind can be achieved.

I am most certainly generalising: notions of ‘justice’ vary widely throughout the world, and arbitrary, sudden violence is still all to common. So, yes I am certainly writing from the vantage point of a white, now retired, man who exists on a smallish, but steady state income, but who also has savings to be used if times get hard. I don’t live in a Brazilian favela, or cheek by jowl with others in a refugee camp, I am not a woman living in the far north of Pakistan, I don’t live in rural China subject to the whims of the local party boss. You get the picture.

Those are the varying details of individual lives: my point is that history is amoral, it just doesn’t care: history takes no account of race, religion, age, health, lineage or any circumstance at all. Granted that in the present coronavirus crisis here in Britain statistics show that bame (Black, Asian and minority ethnic) Brits are more likely to die from covid-19 infection (and we don’t yet know why) and males are more likely to die than females (and we don’t know why), but my general point holds, I think.

All bame Brits and all men face the same danger. The virus doesn’t decide ‘well, this chappie went to a good school and is of standing in the community whereas this one is a jobless layabout, so I’ll kill him’. All are at risk from the virus, and all are equally subject to the whim of history (or to put it a little more sensibly, the whim of events).

. . .

I suppose any age taking a look around and trying to identify contemporary evils will have an easy time of it. But ‘history’ does seem to come in ‘waves’ (if that makes sense). As always context is important. So for us folk in Western Europe the past 75 years have broadly been peaceful. Folk in the Congo, China and parts of South America would not say the same.

Yet all of us, because of the impact of government lockdown measures in response to the virus pandemic which will have severely damaged nation’s economies, pretty much every corner of the world is said to be likely to suffer from a global recession that is forecast to be not just as bad as the Great Depression in the 1930s, but ‘the worst for 300 years’.

And even if for some reason one nation’s economy is in better shape than that of others, if that nation relies on global trade, it will be equally badly hit. You might have been lucky enough to be in a position to carry on and manufacture goods and services, but if you traditional clients are screwed and unable to buy those goods and services from you, it’s all a little pointless.

. . .

Also on the horizon is the uncertainty of what China is up to. It has long been irked by the freedoms the former British colony Hong Kong was granted when it reverted to Chinese control and it has been especially irked by the resistance to its rule in Hong Kong and has taken the time while the world’s focus was elsewhere because of the virus crisis to impost new laws bringing the former British colony much closer under its control. These are being resisted.

The question is if the situation in Hong Kong did get a lot worse, if something akin to a ‘civil war’ did break out, how would the world react? And if that reaction was only half-hearted, with a series of those ineffectual ‘strong warnings’ which mean even less than the paper they are written on and ‘red lines’ which are subsequently

forgotten about (©Barack Obama viz Syria), China might then finally cross a rubicon and try to take control of Taiwan (it claims Taiwan is part of China, Taiwan disagrees).

This prospect is all the more real in that whereas previously China has insisted one of its aims is ‘peaceful reunification’ with the island, in the past months it has dropped the word ‘peaceful’ whenever that aim is repeated. That is significant.

Taiwan would most certainly put up a far bigger fight than Hong Kong if it were invaded, and has the artillery to do so, but would the West come to its defence as it has long promised? Discuss.

. . .

That last question is all the more pertinent in that for the US the ‘Trump question’ is reaching crisis point. I shan’t here repeat the recital of the man’s almost incomprehensible stupidity which you either know about or have been asleep for the past four years, but ‘the US president’ is, like it or not, pivotal to the outcome of world events of magnitude, and a the moment (hopefully only for another eight months) Trump is that president. How he would react to Chinese military action to take control of China is anyone’s guess. On paper the US has promised to defend Taiwan. Would Trump?

Trump has vacillated on so many issues that it is impossible to predict what he might do. He was friends with North Korea’s Kim Jung-un as part of some cockeyed, ill-thought out plan to get Kim to get rid of his nuclear arsenal. Then he wasn’t. In 2015 China’s Xi Jinping visited the US (still under President Barack Obama), but when Trump took office relations between the US and China, not very good even then, worsened considerably.

Trump imposed trade restrictions and tariffs but his actions were not underpinned by any discernible strategy. Trump seems to rely on his bowel movements for inspiration and strategy on what to do next rather than rational thought. So how would he react if China did move on Hong Kong or Taiwain? Who knows.

One line of reasoning is that China is too concerned with keeping up trade with the rest of the world to risk damaging its trading relations. After the coronavirus outbreak in China, the ruling Communist Party became a little more unpopular with ‘the people’, and it knows that it must keep up living standards for the vast majority for its own sake.

A slump in trade and sales of its goods to the rest of the world could see a recession in China and a decline in those living standards, and even more unhappy people. As a rule, folk aren’t a much concerned with airy-fairy notions such as ‘liberty’ and ‘freedom of speech’ as with how full their stomach is. The emptier the stomach, the more concerned they become with airy-fairy notions.

On the other hand if, as we are told we are all in for the mother of all recessions, that, too, will hit China badly and Xi Jinping might reason that as times are bad, now might be a good time to invade Taiwan. That would, at least, work according to the principle that if a ruler has internal trouble, creating external trouble for his nation abroad is a good way uniting the nation and deflecting attention from domestic problems

Another line of reasoning is that while the ‘free world’ is concerned with the virus crisis and while the US gets ever more divided by the antics — there can be no other word — of an unstable president, now might be the best time to do the unthinkable: attempt to take over Hong Kong or, more to the point, Taiwan. This would not be, or even mainly be, to get control of those two islands, it would to underline so that there is no doubt on the matter that China is now the dominated world superpower. And that, Xi Jinping might believe, is worth the risk.

He, though, has problems of his own. We can’t know too much of what is going on in China but he does seem to have a great deal of internal Communist Party opposition. A few years ago he finagled himself into becoming more or less president for life. That has not gone down with many in his party (especially, I should think, those few slightly younger ones who would have been in a position to take over as party chairman when he retired. Well, dear hearts, choke on it: now he ain’t).

. . .

In the US things seem to be going from bad to worse for ‘The Donald’: after being caught out time and again spouting complete nonsense about how to tackle the coronavirus and insisting things were getting better when it was obvious to the rest of the US that they simply were not, he now has rioting and looting in more than 40 cities to deal with. And is dealing with it unbelievably badly. I mean if one were to sit down and work out how not to handle the situation, you couldn’t come out with a worse way than Trump’s.

The situation is complex. Many of the demonstrators are peaceful, protesting over what seems likely to have been, at best, the wilful homicide of a black man called George Floyd. Many demonstrators are not peaceful because they are so angry and so frustrated at how they and their fellow black Americans are treated day in, day out. It is also likely that there are several agitators in play, acting for their own particular reasons. And, bizarrely, it is even

possible that some of those agitators are undercover white supremacists who have long wanted a ‘race war’ in the US to get rid of all black and who feel now is the time to exacerbate the situation and start one. This morning’s papers carry a report that Twitter has closed down an allegedly ANTIFA account calling for violence when it discovered it was a fake account set up by a white supremacist group.

At the time of writing, just after 10.10 GMT + 1 on Tuesday, June 3, 2020, what will happen is all up in the air. Most likely the situation will peter out as have previous such violent protests over the murder of black folk by police (for the record Arthur McDuffie in 1979, Rodney King - 1992, Timothy Thomas - 2001, Michael Brown - 2014, Eric Garner - 2014, Freddie Gray - 2015, Keith Scott - 2016). But the anger and frustration will remain. And so, it would seem, will such police action. I must be fair: there will be any number of white US police officers are who good, honest men and women who would not discriminate against blacks. But we all know just a minority can do real harm and real harm is what it seems a minority in the US want.

Trump is worse than useless in handling the situation, just as he is worse than useless at handling the covid-19 crisis.

. . .

As for ‘the future’ it is always impossible to tell what ‘history’ has in store for us. But it is not looking good, for very tangible reasons. Once the virus pandemic has died down and if there is a second wave, once that, too, has died down, there is the economic fallout to deal with. And that will certainly involved unemployment on a scale unknown for decades and all that entails.

Happy Easter!